Section 4: Chicken consumption growth slows
- Chickenmeat consumption (supply)
- Broilermeat consumption - selected countries
People eat more meat as their wealth increases. Particularly in developing countries such gains need to be aligned to improvements in the distribution of income. The demand for poultry is also influenced by population growth, demographic changes, including urbanisation, along with changing dietary preferences and eating habits and, of course, relative price changes between chicken and its competitors.
In the past, our global consumption data have shown the trend in poultrymeat uptake. For a number of countries this data has included the consumption of turkeymeat and other fowl. Here, we have attempted to present the trend solely for chickenmeat which the decade 1995-2005 saw average consumption/person/year grow from around 8.3kg to nearly 11kg, or in broad terms, at around 3%/year.
The global figures range enormously from between 1-2kg/person/year in some of the developing economies to more than 40kg in a few developed countries. However, in some of the latter and certainly in the USA, the demand for chicken, and even more so for turkeymeat, seems to becoming more inelastic. Hence, it takes a larger price movement to impact on uptake, which is a reflection of the maturity of the market. Also, when demand becomes less elastic, even a small over production has a much greater downward impact on price.
Higher prices slow uptake/person
Continued strong economic growth in developing countries will maintain the shift towards the higher protein content of diets and hence a higher level of meat consumption.
Recent feed price rises will increase costs and the resultant higher prices will put a brake on the rate of expansion in chicken production, possibly bringing the annual rate of increase to below 3% a year, which will be reflected in smaller increases in the consumption of chicken/person. This is evident in the accompanying table showing forecasts by the USA’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) of the likely levels of broiler consumption in selected countries in 2016. The 2006 estimates point to a significant cutback in the uptake/person in the European Union. This is the direct affect of the outbreaks of avian influenza on chicken demand in those countries.
Health issues, such as avian influenza, have changed people’s attitudes towards the ways in which all poultrymeat is produced and the reliability of the information supplied on the labels. This has triggered the growth in products that can be distinguished from “globalised” poultry by being defined as “locally certified” and has provided a competitive advantage for such local or regional items.
Diversified AI attitudes
There can be no doubt that continued outbreaks of avian influenza will have an adverse effect on the demand and hence consumption of chicken and turkeymeat in the foreseeable future, as consumer attitudes become increasingly sensitive to their perceptions of any risk. However, in some countries, it appears that, unlike sales of whole birds, purchases of processed poultry products have hardly been affected by the adverse publicity surrounding the disease. Consumption patterns are becoming increasingly diversified which means that sellers will need to known even more about how consumers make their choices if they are to meet their needs profitably.