Section 3: Exports of chicken to recover
- World trade in chickenmeat and turkeymeat
- Broilermeat exports - selected countries
- Broilermeat imports - selected countries
- Turkeymeat exports - selected countries
- Turkeymeat imports - selected countries
This year will witness a recovery in the world trade for chickenmeat following the disappointment of 2006 when the demand in importing countries slumped as the result of the publicity given to the outbreaks of avian influenza.
Unfortunately global data for 2006 are not yet available but according to both FAO and USDA estimates, the cutback in trade last year was around 4%.
USDA forecasts of broilermeat exports for this year point to a gain of more than 5% to almost 6.9 million tonnes (see accompanying table).
Russia, Japan and the European Union account for more than a third of chickenmeat purchases and fewer than a dozen countries represent over two-thirds of this trade. Looking to 2016 America’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), sees little change in the level of Russia’s imports but Japan’s purchases will likely increase to more than 900,000 tonnes a year.
On the export side of the business just two countries, Brazil and the USA, account for around two-thirds of shipments. Back in 2003, the USA was the leading exporter selling more than 2.2 million tonnes, while Brazil was in second place with 1.9mt., Since then Brazil has emerged as the leading exporter pushing the USA back to the number two spot.
EU shipments steady
Shipments from the European Union to non-member countries are expected to remain steady and the forecast for China’s chickenmeat exports show a similar picture.
After a dramatic slump in exports in 2004 when shipments of uncooked chicken products from Thailand were banned following outbreaks of avian influenza, this country switched to marketing cooked products. As a result, exports have since recovered and are forecast to reach 280,000t this year.
In recent years Argentina has become more prominent in the export market with this year’s sales forecast at around 110,000t.
According to FAPRI estimates, the USA will regain the top spot for chicken exports within the next five years while by 2016, US shipments are expected to exceed 3.2mt a year against a forecast for Brazil of just under 3.0mt.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), forecasting developments to 2014, considers that traditional importing countries will continue to expand their regional dominance with the majority of exports originating from the USA and Brazil. It also believes that the shift in global trading to more cooked and processed poultry, particularly from Thailand and China, will continue to grow.
Increased imports are anticipated in Russia, China and Mexico.
The global trade in turkeymeat is concentrated in even fewer hands with the annual volume exported hovering around 900,000t.
Brazil increases shipments
The USA is the major supplier accounting for over 25% of the total. However, an expansion in production in Brazil has seen this country increasingly active in the export market with annual shipments currently in excess of 150,000t, closely followed by the European Union
Mirroring the export side, there are only three major importers - Mexico, the European Union and Russia. There are however, no indications that the annual volumes traded will show any significant growth in the near future.